New Monkeypox Pandemic Spreading Across the Globe: What You Need to Know

A dangerous virus is spreading rapidly, with cases being reported in 116 countries, including India. The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued an alert, warning that if the virus is not contained, it could become the next major global pandemic. With echoes of the past two years still fresh in our minds, the question now is: Are we on the verge of another worldwide crisis?

WHO's Announcement and the Discovery of a New M-Pox Strain

On August 14th, 2023, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the Director-General of the WHO, issued a public warning: a new, deadlier strain of the Mpox (formerly known as Monkeypox) virus was surfacing. For years, this virus posed a threat only in certain regions of Africa. Now, it is quickly spreading across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. This variant appears to be more contagious and significantly deadlier than any prior outbreaks, with estimates suggesting it is at least seven times more fatal than COVID-19.

The Spread of M-Pox Virus: From Congo to the World

The virus, first identified in the Democratic Republic of Congo, has created chaos across 12 countries in Africa. From there, it made its way to areas like Sweden, Saudi Arabia, and even the Philippines. But how did a virus that started in a relatively contained part of Central Africa take the leap to the rest of the world?

The Mpox virus has had multiple mutations. In 2022, a weaker variant made an unsuccessful attempt to spread globally. The current strain, however, is far more virulent, and its capacity to overpower immune systems worldwide is worrying. Given its insidious spread across continents, the situation has many concerned about the potential reemergence of extended lockdowns or massive loss of life.

Is India Ready for the Dark Days Ahead?

India is no stranger to pandemics and has already started mobilizing resources. On the heels of grim warnings, Prime Minister Modi’s top aide, Principal Secretary P.K. Mishra, held a crucial emergency meeting. The focus was on bolstering preparedness, especially in major entry points for international travelers—hospitals like Ram Manohar Lohia, Safdarjung, and Lady Hardinge in New Delhi have been told to brace for an influx of potential quarantine cases.

Mishra has also appealed to hospitals across other states to ramp up their preparations. With increasing international travel and rising numbers of infections globally, India finds itself squarely in the danger zone.

The Virus's Dangerous Evolution: Mutation and Incubation

Healthcare experts have repeatedly pointed out how viruses mutate when left unchecked. It’s not just about immediate transmission—viruses quietly incubate in human hosts for two to three years, silently creating mutations that eventually allow them to breach defenses such as an immune response or isolation protocols. Once the right mutation occurs, the virus can explode, infecting populations rapidly.

This is exactly what has scientists on edge with Mpox. The weaker version of the virus that tried spreading in 2022 gave it precious time to evolve into the more potent strain we're facing today. Early estimates suggest that the virus may now be close to its tipping point—meaning its spread could soon become uncontrollable if no aggressive intervention happens immediately.

The Concept of Tipping Points in Viral Outbreaks

Experts use the term "tipping point" to describe the moment when a disease shifts from being a local problem to a global crisis. This is what nations experienced with COVID-19 back in March of 2020. Could we be nearing a similar event with Mpox?

As the virus stealthily invades more countries, governments and health bodies are taking precautions, but there’s a looming fear that these measures may not be enough. Could we see entire nations descend into widespread lockdowns again? While history is yet to be written, the situation is increasingly alarming.

Monkeypox Annals: The Virus's First Appearance

M-pox was first documented way back in 1958 when Danish scientists experimented on macaque monkeys imported from Singapore. While the purpose was to test a polio vaccine, researchers were startled to discover one infected monkey showing severe viral infection symptoms—fever, muscle pain, and skin lesions.

This was the world's initiation to what we now call Monkeypox. At the time, the virus was contained to primates, but by 1970 it would cross over into the human population, starting its long history of sporadic outbreaks.

The First Human Victim and the Virus’s Animal Origins

The first known human infection occurred in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). A nine-year-old tribal boy, known to be in close contact with infected monkeys, became the virus’s first human victim. For scientists studying this incident, the boy’s body essentially became a test tube in which the virus mutated—as it adapted to human hosts, it became more deadly. And sadly, that boy’s death marked the beginning of a broader problem.

Over the decades, Mpox has evolved to form two dominant clades, or groups: Clade 1 (formerly Congo Basin Clade) and Clade 2 (West African Clade). Both present dangers, but Clade 1's mutations prove to be far more lethal.

The Difference Between the Two Clades of M-Pox

The two distinct clades of Mpox operate differently. Clade 1, which originated in Congo, is more dangerous. It presents more severe symptoms, making it easier to detect and isolate affected individuals. However, people infected with Clade 1 are far less likely to travel far, limiting the virus's spread.

In contrast, Clade 2, while generally causing milder symptoms, is far more adept at slipping through borders and infecting broader populations. This is why past outbreaks of Clade 2 stretched beyond Africa into Europe and even parts of Asia. Its milder nature means that infected people often feel well enough to travel, even if they’re unknowingly spreading the disease.

Case Fatality Rates: A Key Measure of Threat

One of the major factors that determine a virus's danger level is its case fatality rate (CFR)—the percentage of infected individuals who die. For Clade 2 of Mpox, this rate is about 1%, meaning one in every 100 infected people dies. While serious, this pales in comparison to Clade 1, which has a CFR of 10%. Simply put, one in every 10 people infected with Clade 1 succumbs to the virus.

While healthcare systems in affected regions play a role in these numbers, the difference in mortality rates between the two clades is too significant to ignore.

The Recent Surge of the Deadly Clade 1

The strain now spreading worldwide is part of Clade 1. Originating in Congo, this variant has now reached all corners of Africa, Europe, and parts of Asia. Health officials are scrambling to contain it within their borders, but its emerging global reach is worrisome.

How Vulnerable Is India to Clade 1?

While the nation is doing its best to prepare, India’s vulnerability cannot be overstated. Back in 2022, a single infected traveler from the UAE managed to infect 25 others in Kerala. Although that variant belonged to the less dangerous Clade 2, one person still died.

Now, imagine the havoc that could ensue if someone infected with the more dangerous Clade 1 were to enter India. With a population of over 1.4 billion people and annual travel statistics showing that at least 100,000 people move between India and Africa, the risk cannot be taken lightly.

Travel and Transmission Risks

The concerning aspect of Mpox is how easily it spreads. You don’t need direct contact with an infected person to catch the virus. It can live on surfaces like clothing, tables, or seat cushions for over 15 days—provided the conditions are favorable, like low humidity and cool temperatures. This raises alarm bells, especially on crowded trains or public transport.

Consider an infected person using a seat on a train 10 days ago. Anyone sitting in the same spot could still pick up the virus long after the original carrier is gone. For a country like India, where public transportation is used by millions daily, this is a ticking time bomb.

What Happens When You Get M-Pox?

Unfortunately, all strains of Mpox can affect humans, with symptoms appearing across three phases.

• Phase 1: Incubation Period: After an initial infection, you may not even know you have the virus. This period can last anywhere from one to two weeks and comes with no symptoms at all.

• Phase 2: Prodrome: Now the virus starts making its presence known. Fever, headache, body weakness, and swollen lymph nodes appear. When coupled with a rash, this is a clear red flag. If you notice swelling in your throat area and general body aches, it may be time to visit a doctor.

• Phase 3: Rash Stage: Here is where it gets worse. The virus moves to the skin. What starts as dry, flat lesions soon bubble up into raised blisters filled with fluid, which later become painful pustules. This phase lasts around two weeks and is the point where infected individuals are most likely to spread the virus to others.

Precautions and WHO Guidelines for M-Pox

If anyone starts displaying symptoms of Mpox—or even suspects they have the virus—they need to take action fast. WHO has issued clear guidelines on how to manage the infection:

• Personal hygiene is essential. Regularly sanitize surfaces and objects frequently touched in your home environment.

• Avoid close contact with infected individuals or animals. Pets and stray animals can also transmit the virus.

• Isolation is crucial. Infected individuals should remain in quarantine until their skin lesions have dried and new healthy skin has formed.

Vaccines: The Global Inequality Problem

There is some good news. There’s a powerful vaccine available for Mpox, called MVA-BN (also known as Jynneos in the U.S.). However, like so many other global problems, vaccine distribution has become uneven. Despite having only 32,000 registered cases, the United States hoarded 88% of the world’s vaccine doses during the 2022 Mpox outbreak. Meanwhile, regions like Africa—where cases are spiraling out of control—are left scrambling for resources.

While a batch of 215,000 doses is on its way to Africa, this is a classic example of too little, too late. The true solution would have been for nations such as the U.S. to prioritize vaccinating at the virus’s epicenter, not hoarding doses for populations that are not at as great a risk.

The Role India Can Play in The Global Health Plan

India, often hailed as the “pharmacy of the world,” played a pivotal role in providing COVID-19 vaccines to economically struggling countries during the peak of the pandemic. Does India now have an opportunity to do the same with Mpox? If global vaccine imbalances are not addressed, the fight against this virus will remain an uphill battle.

It’s a global issue with repercussions for every nation. As long as the source of the virus remains unchecked in Africa, the world will stand on edge.

A Final Word of Caution

The rising threat of the new Mpox strain is real. We cannot afford to be complacent, not after everything that has transpired in recent years. Adopting proper precautions, raising awareness, and doing what we can to limit the spread should now be a priority for everyone.

As we stand on the edge of what could be the next global health crisis, the best way forward is awareness and early action. Stay safe, remain informed, and always prioritize your health and that of others around you.